In This Issue
Cover Story
Wither the Economy:
McCain and Obama Stake Out Differing Visions

Features
Tails, I Win; Heads, You Lose

The Seven Deadly Frictions
of Subprime Mortgage Securitization

Sizing Up the Underwriters:
A Five-Year Perspective on Underwriter Performance

Byron Wien:
Man of Many Years

Departments
From the
Executive Director

Welcome to the
Investment Professional

Hot Zones
Crossing the Chasm:
Derivatives in the New Era

Hot Zones
Wall Street Meets the EPA:
The Expanding Dialogue on Environmental Data, Corporate Performance, and Securities Analysis

Worldview
Tiger, Tiger, Burning Bright?
Is Vietnam Another China?


Abstract
Free Lunch in Emerging Markets:
Evidence from Latin America

Careers
Small World, Big Globe:
Globalization in the Financial-Services Job Market


Case Study
Brand New or Old News?
The Corporate Restructuring Techniques of Private-Equity
Firms and the Case of Crown,
Cork & Seal

Interview
Commodities Still Heating Up:
Talking with Jim Rogers

Book Review
Assessing the Alternatives:
Review of The Only Guide to Alternative Investments You'll
Ever Need

Final Analysis
Greenbacks for Grey Water:
Developing Business Models to Address Climate Change

Wither the Economy?
MCCAIN AND OBAMA STAKE OUT DIFFERING VISIONS
| BACK TO MAIN ARTICLE |

The Experts

Timothy Canova, JD, associate dean for academic affairs and Betty Hutton Williams Professor of International Economic Law at the Chapman University School of Law

  • Received JD degree from Georgetown University
  • Earned his master’s degree in graduate legal studies from the University of Stockholm Faculty of Law, where he was a Swedish Institute Visiting Scholar
  • Served as a legislative aide to the late US senator Paul Tsongas

“If I have to pick the one big economic issue I’d choose the value of the dollar. It’s in a precarious position. Talking about the dollar brings in an awful lot of other issues—the size of the trade deficit, and our trade, monetary, and regulatory policies. But from a purely monetary-policy perspective, no president is going to have much control over the dollar.”

Timothy Canova

Christopher Dolan, PhD, assistant professor of political science at Lebanon Valley College

“Two things are contributing to the budget deficit: entitlement spending and the way in which tax cuts deprived the federal government of trillions of dollars of revenue for financing things like Social Security. The next president must bring the budget deficit in line because it affects everything else.”

Christopher Dolan

Don Dutkowsky, PhD, professor of economics at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University

  • Frequent contributor to periodicals including Journal of Finance, Journal of Economics and Business, and International Journal of Forecasting
  • Researcher on macrofinance and bank behavior, macroeconomic theory and policy, and monetary theory and policy

“The winning candidate must be able to formulate an energy policy of conservation with tax credits for increased efficiency in automobile manufacture and in usage of electricity and natural gas. Anything I’ve seen about drilling says oil is not going to address the issue.”

Don Dutkowsky

Richard Ebeling, PhD, senior fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research

“On the domestic front, the key issue facing the next president and the presidents after him is the rising cost of the US entitlement program. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid all represent trillions of dollars in financial commitments made by the United States government to a relatively aging population.”

Richard Ebeling

Kent Gilbreath, PhD, professor of economics at Baylor University

  • Presenter on salaries and benefits and on US family income at conferences hosted by organizations including the American Academy of Economic and Financial Experts and the Western Economic Association International
  • Former member of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Board of Directors
  • Expert witness in forensic economics

“The biggest issue facing the economy is the deteriorating economic status of the middle and lower-middle classes. There has been a slow but very clear erosion of the purchasing power and the financial strength of the vast majority of Americans. It’s gone almost unnoticed except by that vast majority.”

Kent Gilbreath

Deborah Hewitt, PhD, clinical associate professor of economics at the Graduate School of Business Administration at the College of William and Mary

  • Received her PhD in economics from Duke University, where she was a James B. Duke Scholar
  • President of Rutledge Research, a private research company that conducts economic research and market-sector valuation
  • Formerly an international economist at the US Treasury Department and chairman of the Claremont Fund, a mutual-fund family

“The most critical issue facing the economy is the budget deficit. Unfortunately the candidates are not being asked about it and it is not being talked about except in snippets here and there. The US government is as broke as the homeowners who are facing foreclosure on their homes. We have to get our fiscal house in order and this needs to be the number one priority.”

Deborah Hewitt

Jim Horney, PhD, director of federal fiscal policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

  • Received his PhD in government and politics from the University of Maryland
  • Former deputy Democratic staff director at the US Senate Budget Committee
  • Former chief of the projections unit in the budget-analysis division of the Congressional Budget Office

“Obama and McCain seem to share a general approach to climate-change policy. That is primarily viewed as an environmental policy but it is also a major economic policy. If you use a cap-and-trade system or a carbon tax to limit carbon you create a new resource that can bring very, very large amounts of money to the federal government.”

Jim Horney

Sherry L. Jarrell, PhD, lecturer in economics at the Calloway School of Business and Accountancy of Wake Forest University

  • Received her BS in mathematics from the University of Delaware, and her MBA and PhD in economics and finance from the University of Chicago
  • Contributor to Journal of Investment Management and Journal of Business
  • Researcher in the impact of mergers, leveraged buyouts, initial public offerings, and other events that affect corporate value

“National defense should be the first priority. Enforcing the laws and keeping us safe is how to grow our economy. And whoever gets into office should minimize the cost of doing business, minimize regulation, minimize tariffs for any kind of international trade, and ensure that we have a well-functioning capital market. These are the key responsibilities of the federal government.”

Sherry L. Jarrell

Lori Kletzer, PhD, professor of economics at the University of California, Santa Cruz

“I find Obama a much more interesting person to think about. If there is a standard Democratic orthodoxy (which I’m not sure there is), he is not it. He’s got a healthy dose of respect for the free market. The notion of a University of Chicago Democrat is an interesting one.”

Lori Kletzer

Robert Kyle, JD, partner with Hogan & Hartson’s International Trade practice

  • Former associate director for National Security and International Affairs at the Office of Management and Budget during the Clinton administration
  • Former special assistant to the President for international trade and finance
  • Former chief international trade counsel to the US Senate Committee on Finance

“One thing worth keeping in mind is the kind of economic environment the new president will find himself in. When the global economy is expanding and countries are doing well, they are more interested in foreign investment and trade. In a slowing global economy, you see more trade restrictions as countries cling to what they’ve got. That hurts US exports and becomes a breeding ground for protectionism.”

Robert Kyle

Ronald Rizzuto, PhD, professor of finance and codirector of the Reiman School of Finance at the University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business

  • Received his MBA and PhD from New York University
  • Frequent contributor to a variety of journals, including Petroleum Accounting and Financial Management Journal, Journal of Financial Education, and Journal of Business Finance and Accounting

“Because of all the spending we’ve been doing, neither candidate will have enough freedom to put in new policies or programs because that will just worsen the size of the budget deficit. But it would be a disaster to raise taxes, such as the capital-gains taxes, because it would affect so much investment spending.”

Ronald Rizzuto

Mark Zandi, PhD, chief economist and cofounder of Moody’s Economy.com

  • Received his PhD from the University of Pennsylvania, where he conducted research with Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein
  • Researcher on the determinates of mortgage foreclosure and personal bankruptcy and the economic impact of government tax and spending
  • Economic advisor to the McCain campaign

“The key issues are fiscal. How will the candidates address the daunting fiscal situation? The arithmetic is worrisome. We are going to have very large budget deficits in the future and that economic problem will need to be addressed. The key difference is in each candidate’s approach to the deficit: fundamentally, you can either raise taxes or cut spending.”

Mark Zandi
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